Episode 1418: Clutch, Clayton, Mickey, and More
Date August 16, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Bryce Harper’s clutchness and how he’s perceived by fans, Clayton Kershaw’s resurgence, and Mickey Callaway’s comments about analytics, then answer listener emails about the same player batting twice and playing two positions, whether Byron Buxton’s defense has hidden value, career WAR vs. career counting stats, whether players could call balls and strikes better than umpires, and the umpire replacement level in the age of computer-called strike zones, plus Stat Blasts about pitchers whom Mike Trout has faced only once and the Cubs’ extreme home/road split, and a postscript about the Angels’ historic .500-ness and how hitter aging curves have changed. Topics * Batting twice in the lineup and playing two positions * Episode 1410 follow-up: Added value of running on 3-2 counts * Pitchers who great batters have only faced once * Extreme home/road splits * Hidden defensive value * Valuing counting stats or WAR for aging players * Replacement umpires in a robot strike zone era * Can umpires or players judge balls/strikes better? * Episode 1391 follow-up: The Angels as the .500-est team of all time * Fernando Tatis' season ending injury Intro Courtney Barnett, "Crippling Self-Doubt and a General Lack of Confidence" Outro Dave Mason, "We Just Disagree" Banter * Bryce Harper is 89th in WAR this season but 5th in WPA. Ben and Sam wonder whether this should impact how he is viewed for MVP voting. * Impact of clutchness on fan perception. * Ben and Sam discuss Harper's recent walk-off grand slam. Sam loved that Harper sped around the bases and thinks that it will earn him enough goodwill from Phillies fans to last the season. * Clayton Kershaw's resurgence and the difficulty of predicting aging curves * Ben really hopes there is a Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros World Series. * Mickey Calloway's comments that 85% of the Mets' decisions go against recommendations from analytics. * Sam discusses spotting mistakes in PECTOA predictions and how to know when to overrule analytics. Email Questions * Andrew: "Last week when the Yankees were playing the Blue Jays the Yankees twitter account accidentally tweeted out their lineup where Didi Gregorius was batting 2nd and playing CF and also batting 4th and playing SS. This got me thinking, what if you could actually do this in real life. You would have 6 players in the field, but the advantage of having a star level player batting twice in the order. What candidate would be the best to try this with? Obvious candidates: Mike Trout playing LF and CF batting 2-3? Lindor playing SS-3B, other? Would you spread the hitters out of have them bat back to back?" * Daniel: “I had a Mike Trout question that I think has probably been answered in the past. When looking at the MT bRef page, you notice he just sorta debuted as a HOFer. So he didn’t really have a big adjustment period. This leads me to believe that it doesn’t matter if it’s the first time or 10th time he faces a pitcher. I was wondering how his 1st time seeing a pitcher compares to mere mortals. Has there been much research in the 1st time seeing a pitcher? I know the players have videos of everyone, but certainly it seems to me that actually seeing live would still cause a certain amount of uneasiness.” * Bobby: "The Cubs have been nigh-unbeatable at home and complete dogshit on the road for most of the season. It almost feels palpable to me in the way that humans recognize patterns that aren’t really there. But through 111 games they’re 21 games over .500 at home and 12 games under on the road, for a difference of 33 games (or maybe 16 1/2?). Only two teams last year had a bigger gap (and it was less on a per-game rate) and neither of them made the playoffs. In 2017, only 2 teams had as big a difference over a full season, and both of them only had a 34-game difference." * Noah: By the end of play on Sunday, the Cubs had a home record of 36-18, a .667 winning percentage. By comparison, the best overall record in baseball belongs to the Dodgers, who have a .645 winning percentage. The Cubs also closed play Sunday with a road record of 20-31, a .392 winning percentage. The worst team in the National League, the Marlins, have a .388 winning percentage for the season. So the Cubs are playing like the Dodgers at home and the Marlins on the road. Where does this rank for the difference between home and road winning percentages? Has a team ever had a season where they played better than the best overall team at home and worse than the worst overall team on the road?" * Beau: "After hearing your brief discussion about how Buxton and Syndergaard have about equal value, it got me thinking if WAR fully encapsulates the worth of an excellent defensive player. The Twins are 57-25 when Buxton plays and 9-17 when he doesn't. Now obviously a lot of this is coincidence but watching Buxton day in and day out I can't help but wonder if he does have a not insignificant role in team victories. For example, if he catches a ball that Jake Cave or Max Kepler doesn't get to, can we assert that he allows the starting pitcher to go longer in the game, thus saving the manager from going to weaker relievers? Does an elite centerfielder make the entire outfield defense better because he can hide the weaknesses of his teammates (or prevent the manager from even having to put a statue in the corner)? Do starting pitchers pitch better when they know they don't have to strike everyone out because they have an elite outfield behind them? Can excellent defense improve team morale so everyone plays better? Or am I just looking at all this through Buxton-colored glasses?" * Alex: "Sam Miller's recent article about HOF's passed in WAR by Mike Trout made me think about counting stats versus WAR. Pete Rose, from his age 40 season to his retirement, lost 2.5 in career WAR, bringing his total career WAR down to 79.7 from 82.2. However, during those years he racked up 559 hits. Is Pete Rose a more interesting/better player if he retires after his age 40 season and finishes 4th all time in hits and 59th in career WAR or first all time in hits and 64th in career WAR? And for that matter, is it worth sacrificing career WAR in pursuit of all time records of hits/HR/2B/RBIs?" * Andrew: “With respect to replacement-level umps, the replacement level has to go way up after robo-strike zones right? Between review and robo-strike zones, don’t you think any avid baseball fan could be an umpire?” * Damian: "Do we have a sense of how the average umpire’s eye compares to the average player’s eye? If a player stepped behind the plate to call balls and strikes, what would we expect their success rate to be?" Stat Blast * In a recent game Jake Lamb was able to score from 1st on a pop single in the 9th inning because he was running on a 3-2 count with 2 outs. * Inspired by Daniel's question, Sam looks at the batting statistics of Mike Trout (and other great hitters) against pitchers that he has only faced once. * There are close to 200 pitchers that Mike Trout has faced once. He is hitting .264/.442/.472 in those at-bats. * Mariano Rivera faced Mike Trout and Barry Bonds once each. He walked Trout and strike out Bonds. * Inspired by Bobby's question Sam also reviews teams whose home winning percentage would have been the best in MLB and road winning percentage would have been the worst in MLB. Notes * During the recording of the episode Ben and Sam receive an email from listener Jeff asking exactly about the Bryce Harper WPA vs. WAR differential that they had already discussed. * The Baltimore Orioles got their first walk-off win of the season. Their lack of walk-off wins was discussed in Episode 1414. * During his Stat Blast Sam admits that there is "nothing particularly interesting about this but I'm gonna keep talking". * The 1996 Colorado Rockies had a .679 winning percentage at home with a 6.18 ERA at home. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1418: Clutch, Clayton, Mickey, and More * Is Bryce a bust? Not if you take Harper's word for it by Sam Miller * Bryce Harper's Walkoff Grand Slam and Clutch Play by Craig Edwards * What Remains of Clayton Kershaw by Ben Clemens * Mets' Callaway: We Go Against Analytics 85% Of Time by Ryan Chatelain * Ericson admits to adjusting ventilation system by Associated Press * Three-Man Weave by Chuck Klosterman * When 20-20 eyesight just won't cut it by Brian MacPherson * Baseball's Young Batters Have Never Been Better by Ben Lindbergh Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes